Bitcoin has had an explosive month of price discovery, as over the course of the last four weeks we’ve climbed above our previous consolidation range and reached new yearly highs.
Data from Glassnode indicates that we are still in the third wave of investor accumulation. Research has shown that in all previous market cycles, there was a pattern of Bitcoin accumulation.
1. The first wave occurs shortly after the All-Time High of Bitcoin in a Market Cycle, when price rapidly moves away (down) from that high level.
2. The second wave occurs during the depths of the Bear Market, when the price floor for that cycle is being discovered and tested.
3. Third third wave occurs after the cycle bottom, when prices begin ticking up in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving.
It’s important to note that in the last market cycle, there was a significant correction following the third wave of accumulation, which ultimately led to prices trending down until March of that year of the halving.
Bitcoin has currently reached a High-Volume Node on our Volume Profile, indicating that this is an area of heavy potential supply or selling pressure.
Our Senior Analyst Alexander had originally called for a $35,000 top for Bitcoin prices in 2023.
Putting this together, we notice that a large gap was created in Bitcoin’s price movement over the last four weeks. We anticipate a good chance for a short-term reversal to re-visit those price levels.
This will give us an opportunity to gauge whether:
1. Bitcoin establishes previous resistance as support, and ranges in anticipation of a further breakout.
2. Bitcoin fails to establish previous resistance as support, and decisively breaks back down into a previous trading range.
Conservative traders can consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and waiting for confirmation of flipped resistance before establishing a new tranche of long interest. Should Bitocin break previous resistance, we reccomend short-selling positions into the end of the year and potentially much of Q1 ’24.
Aggressive traders can also consider taking profits on BTC long positions, and establishing short-positions early, whether just for the re-test of the Fair-Value Gap, or to attempt to time the big swing of Bitcoin’s correction.
