The ones who have been following me more “closely” know that i have been looking up for Bitcoin for a long time. Patience has been tested for almost a year now but it seems it’s finally paying off now. But we are not there yet!
Will keep this one short. Like 6-9 months ago i talked about 35/40K prices being possible again (when meeting certain conditions back then). But as posted a week ago after the pump to 35K, I said that because of the strong breakout, that 40K is probably too conservative (things change as they go and we adapt).
Friday evening i posted that i was gonna hedge a % of my crypto positions and this morning i posted that i closed it again. These days it’s a bit dangerous to go overnight during weekends.
Anyway, the consolidation is still in the making. Past days I had difficulties to label the consolidation. Is it bull flag, a triangle or something else. Now all are bullish, but need to know which one it is so we know in time whether broke the resistance but even more important, knowing if it broke the support.
For now, my best guess is a curving support line of this consolidation. It’s support is around 34.0k/33.8k. It doesn’t mean that if that breaks that the bull rally has already failed, but it does usually mean it has failed for the short term. If it fails, it can drop below 33K, but really want to see a weekly close above 33kish. With a max low of around 32K. Otherwise it’s becoming likely that I am wrong about the whole thing.
Alts are moving pretty decent, relatively much better than previous bullish moves past 6 months, so that’s a good sign. There are a few more bullish signs so chances for seeing 38/40K are bigger than seeing 30K again at this point.
The biggest factor however, something i talked about a lot past months, are interest rates. Those have put a lot of pressure on the markets past months and especially past weeks. Despite that Bitcoin has pumped which is VERY good, just have a small fear in the back of my mind that maybe it’s just a trick. Whales cashing out at current prices already because (they think) interest rates won’t be dropping any time soon. Those really need to start dropping a bit, I think it will be a big deal (for crypto but also for the stock market).
What is the potential here for the coming weeks/months. This is assuming we break upwards.
1) We break up and rally towards 37/38K and consolidate again for several days. Then it could be that 39/42K is the max for the coming 2/3 months and we need to judge from there on out what could happen in 2024.
2), We break up and rally towards the 40K within a few days. If this happens, then a whole lot more is possible, even 50K+ prices again within a 3/6 months.
Before getting too excited, we are not there yet. This consolidation is not over yet and rates are rising again as we speak. For the very short term, lets see if today 34.2Kish hold.
I already mentioned the levels on the downside. For the bigger picture, 29.5/30K needs to hold, below it I will most likely let go of my bullish view I had the past year. Below 28/27.5K I will give it up for sure.
Trade wisely without fear and greed,
David
